Incheon United 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Incheon United take on Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Incheon United at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Incheon United. A 0.50 PPG lead over Daegu FC (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Incheon United edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Incheon United 2–2 Daegu FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 46% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 36% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.93 xG and Daegu FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.777 / defence 0.803 | Daegu FC attack 0.855 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.142. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Incheon United's last 58 games and Daegu FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 36% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.79 | Draw 2.72 | Daegu FC 3.64. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Incheon United's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 30% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 36% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Incheon United 0.93 / Daegu FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.777 / def 0.803 | Daegu FC attack 0.855 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Daegu FC xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Incheon United vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Incheon United vs Daegu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Incheon United 3 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daegu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 36% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Incheon United and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Incheon United vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.78) and Daegu FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.85x) against Incheon United's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Incheon United's last 58 games and Daegu FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
37%
2.72
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.72
0.78
Daegu FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Incheon United vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.78 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Incheon United come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 24D 18L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 63 outings (18W 26D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Incheon United against 1.27 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Incheon United's home form reads 10W 13D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 31 away games (6W 14D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
Incheon United (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Incheon United
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Incheon United vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 21W 24D 18L in their last 63 games (1.38 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 18W 26D 19L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daegu FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.39 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Incheon United vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Incheon United have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 November 2024: Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 42%, Daegu FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 48% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Incheon United vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Incheon United and Daegu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Incheon United's recent matches and 68% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Incheon United and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 48% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Incheon United's recent matches and 61% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daegu FC 3-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.93 xG and Daegu FC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 36% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 36%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.38 PPG, Daegu FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.