Minai 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Dnipro-1 (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Minai face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Dnipro-1 travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Minai — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Minai have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Minai have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Mynai — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dnipro-1 — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Dnipro-1, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Minai.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dnipro-1 have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Minai in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 42% versus Dnipro-1 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 26% | Dnipro-1 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 0.88 xG and Dnipro-1 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.764 / defence 1.181 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.061 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.198. Minai's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Minai games / 31 Dnipro-1 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Minai 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52%. Fair-value odds: Minai 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Dnipro-1 1.92. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Minai 40% | Dnipro-1 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Minai 0.88 / Dnipro-1 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.764 / def 1.181 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.061 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Minai vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Dnipro-1?
Minai 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Minai vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Minai vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 22% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Minai and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Dnipro-1?
Record (3 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 3W.
What form are Minai and Dnipro-1 in?
Minai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Minai's attack at 0.76x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
22%
4.54
26%
3.83
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Minai xG
Total xG
2.38
1.50
Dnipro-1 xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
5%
20.38
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.9 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Minai and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Minai and 1.50 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Minai's recent record stands at 8W 9D 14L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Minai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 22W 4D 5L across 31 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Minai have managed 3W 4D 8L from 15 games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 10W 2D 3L across 15 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Minai are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.03 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 22W 4D 5L in their last 31 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.87 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Minai or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Minai have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Minai and Dnipro-1 runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2021, when Dnipro-1 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Minai's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Minai
2
Draws
3
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-1 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 33%, Dnipro-1 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Minai) and 67% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 47%; Minai have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Minai's recent matches and 47% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Minai's recent games and 67% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Minai and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 3, as Minai and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 0.88 xG and Dnipro-1 1.50 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Minai 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 26%, Dnipro-1 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.