Ilves 0-3 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ilves's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ilves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KuPS have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
KuPS away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
KuPS arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 60% versus KuPS 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 49% | KuPS 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ilves surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while KuPS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 0.82 xG and KuPS 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.782 / defence 1.091 | KuPS attack 1.189 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.130. Ilves's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Ilves's last 40 games and KuPS's last 40.
Result probabilities: Ilves 19% | Draw 30% | KuPS 51%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 5.25 | Draw 3.29 | KuPS 1.98. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ilves's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ilves 70% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 19 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 19% | Draw 30% | KuPS 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ilves 0.82 / KuPS 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.782 / def 1.091 | KuPS attack 1.189 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: KuPS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.47
KuPS xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ilves vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 0 - 3 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 19) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 19% chance of winning, KuPS a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (0.78) and KuPS's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.19x) against Ilves's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Ilves's last 40 games and KuPS's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
19%
5.25
30%
3.29
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.28
1.47
KuPS xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
22.72
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Ilves and 1.47 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 12W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 28W 8D 9L from 45 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 21 home games (5W 6D 10L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 12W 4D 5L from their last 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.49 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
Ilves (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while KuPS have gone 28W 8D 9L in their last 45 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.00 PPG; KuPS away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KuPS in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Ilves and KuPS, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 23 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won Ilves 0-3 KuPS on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Ilves vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 June 2026: KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 62%, KuPS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ilves) and 33% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ilves and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ilves's recent matches and 43% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ilves and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ilves's recent games and 33% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ilves's recent matches and 57% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 0-3 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 0.82 xG and KuPS 1.47 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ilves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. KuPS outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against KuPS attack 1.19 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 19% | Draw 30% | KuPS 51%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 49%, KuPS 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.