Botafogo 3-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Internacional travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's home record at Estádio Nilton Santos: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Internacional — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Botafogo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1, Internacional 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Internacional trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 38% versus Internacional 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 38% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.62 xG and Internacional 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.326 / defence 0.645 | Internacional attack 0.810 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.993. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.645 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Botafogo games / 56 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 64% | Draw 26% | Internacional 11%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.56 | Draw 3.85 | Internacional 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 20% | Internacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 64% | Draw 26% | Internacional 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 33% | xG Botafogo 1.62 / Internacional 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.326 / def 0.645 | Internacional attack 0.810 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Internacional xG
33%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Internacional kick off?
Botafogo vs Internacional kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Botafogo 3 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Botafogo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Internacional part of?
Botafogo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 64% chance of winning, Internacional a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Botafogo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Internacional (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.33x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.5%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
64%
1.57
26%
3.90
11%
9.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.14
0.52
Internacional xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
9.36
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
60%
1.68
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
2%
47.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.52 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 10D 17L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.73 PPG from 56 outings (26W 19D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.73 PPG, Internacional on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Botafogo's home form reads 15W 4D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (9W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.32 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Internacional in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 29W 10D 17L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Internacional have gone 26W 19D 11L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Internacional away?
Botafogo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.75 PPG; Internacional away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Internacional in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2025, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Internacional have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Internacional?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 32%, Internacional 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Botafogo and 25% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Botafogo have failed to score in 29% of games; Internacional in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Botafogo's recent matches and 46% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Botafogo's recent games and 25% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Internacional 3-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.62 xG and Internacional 0.52 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.33 / defence 0.65 against Internacional attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 64% | Draw 26% | Internacional 11%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.73 PPG, Internacional 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.