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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 5 March 2022

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 5 March 2022. The strongest reading belongs to Bastia vs Valenciennes at 81% in the Ligue 2. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 65%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

Ligue 2 supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 70%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 2 · France 81%

✓ Under 2.5 81% BTTS No 74% Bastia Clean Sheet 56%

Ligue 2 · France 79%

Under 2.5 79% BTTS No 71%

Ligue 2 · France 78%

✓ Under 2.5 78% ✓ BTTS No 69%

K League 1 · South-Korea 78%

Under 2.5 78% BTTS No 69%

League One · England 78%

✓ Under 2.5 78% ✓ BTTS No 69%

Premier League · England 76%

Under 2.5 76% ✓ BTTS No 71% ✓ Chelsea Clean Sheet 56%

League Two · England 76%

✓ Under 2.5 76% BTTS No 65%

Championship · England 76%

✓ Under 2.5 76% ✓ BTTS No 68%

League Two · England 76%

Under 2.5 76% BTTS No 66%

#10

League Two · England 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 65%

#11

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#12

Ligue 2 · France 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 64%

#13

K League 1 · South-Korea 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#14

Ligue 2 · France 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#15

Premier League · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#16

Ligue 2 · France 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%

#17

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 63%

#18

Eredivisie · Netherlands 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#19

Ekstraklasa · Poland 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#20

Premier League · Russia 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 5 March 2022?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Bastia vs Valenciennes at 81% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.