Burnley 0-4 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Chelsea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Chelsea at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chelsea have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chelsea away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chelsea — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Chelsea and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Chelsea in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 48% versus Chelsea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 36% | Chelsea 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.59 xG and Chelsea 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.637 / defence 0.904 | Chelsea attack 0.903 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.333. Burnley's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Burnley games / 25 Chelsea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 33% | Chelsea 47%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Chelsea 2.13. Chelsea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chelsea as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chelsea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.67 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Chelsea 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 33% | Chelsea 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 29% | xG Burnley 0.59 / Chelsea 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.637 / def 0.904 | Chelsea attack 0.903 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chelsea xG
29%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Chelsea kick off?
Burnley vs Chelsea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Chelsea?
Burnley 0 - 4 Chelsea.
Where is Burnley vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Chelsea part of?
Burnley vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 20% chance of winning, Chelsea a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Burnley and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Chelsea?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Chelsea 0W.
What form are Burnley and Chelsea in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Chelsea (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.64x the league average against Chelsea's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chelsea's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
20%
5.06
33%
3.05
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.67
1.09
Chelsea xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Burnley and 1.09 for Chelsea, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Chelsea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 3W 12D 10L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chelsea's form line: 14W 8D 3L from 25 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chelsea are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
On the road, Chelsea have gone 7W 3D 2L from 12 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 1.96 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Chelsea in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Chelsea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 3W 12D 10L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 14W 8D 3L in their last 25 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.00 PPG; Chelsea away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Chelsea in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Chelsea runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Chelsea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Chelsea specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
3
Draws
3
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Chelsea?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Chelsea have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chelsea 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 42%, Chelsea 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Burnley) and 50% (Chelsea).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chelsea in 50%; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Chelsea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burnley's recent matches and 42% of Chelsea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of Chelsea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat Burnley 0-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.59 xG and Chelsea 1.09 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chelsea outscored their 1.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.64 / defence 0.90 against Chelsea attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 20% | Draw 33% | Chelsea 47%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Chelsea 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chelsea's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.