Niort 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade René Gaillard to take on Niort. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Niort stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's home record at Stade René Gaillard: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ajaccio — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Niort at 1.40 PPG versus Ajaccio's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Niort's 30% rate and Ajaccio's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Niort, 0 for Ajaccio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Niort 31% | Ajaccio 15%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 42% | Ajaccio 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.87 xG and Ajaccio 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.931 / defence 1.019 | Ajaccio attack 0.767 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Data: 26 Niort games / 26 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 36% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 28%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Ajaccio 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Ajaccio's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.60 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Ajaccio 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 36% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Niort 0.87 / Ajaccio 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.931 / def 1.019 | Ajaccio attack 0.767 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Ajaccio xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Ajaccio kick off?
Niort vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Ajaccio?
Niort 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Niort vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Ajaccio part of?
Niort vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 36% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Niort and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Niort and Ajaccio in?
Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Niort's attack at 0.93x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
36%
2.77
36%
2.78
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Niort xG
Total xG
1.60
0.73
Ajaccio xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are Niort and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Niort and 0.73 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Niort have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 5D 11L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 14W 6D 6L from 26 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Niort have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.92 scored and 0.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 15%.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ajaccio in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Ajaccio away?
Niort's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.67 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Niort or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Niort and Ajaccio runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Niort 0-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Niort 25% BTTS, Ajaccio 8%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Niort and 0% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ajaccio in 58%; Niort have failed to score in 42% of games; Ajaccio in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Niort's recent matches and 8% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Niort's recent games and 0% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Niort 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Niort 0-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.87 xG and Ajaccio 0.73 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Niort fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Ajaccio attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 36% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 28%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 42%, Ajaccio 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 23%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.