Willem II 0-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Willem II welcome Heerenveen to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 0.30 PPG, Heerenveen 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Willem II, 1 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 46% versus Heerenveen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | Heerenveen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.04 xG and Heerenveen 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.713 / defence 1.147 | Heerenveen attack 0.649 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.337. Willem II's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heerenveen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Willem II games / 24 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Heerenveen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 50% | Heerenveen 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Willem II 1.04 / Heerenveen 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.713 / def 1.147 | Heerenveen attack 0.649 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Willem II (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Heerenveen xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Heerenveen kick off?
Willem II vs Heerenveen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Willem II 0 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Willem II vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heerenveen part of?
Willem II vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 36% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Willem II and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 1W.
What form are Willem II and Heerenveen in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.27
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.03
0.99
Heerenveen xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Willem II and 0.99 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 3D 15L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 0.88 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 4W 1D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 0.92 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 6W 3D 15L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.18 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Heerenveen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Willem II's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
1
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 46%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Willem II) and 36% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Willem II's recent matches and 54% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Willem II's recent games and 36% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Willem II's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Willem II and Heerenveen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.04 xG and Heerenveen 0.99 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Heerenveen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Heerenveen attack 0.65 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 36% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, Heerenveen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heerenveen's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.88 PPG, Heerenveen 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.