Nancy 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Nancy welcome Grenoble to Stade Marcel-Picot. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Marcel-Picot — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nancy are significantly better at Stade Marcel-Picot than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Nancy) versus 0.40 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nancy, 1 for Grenoble and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Grenoble winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 58% versus Grenoble 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 46% | Grenoble 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.17 xG and Grenoble 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.871 / defence 1.288 | Grenoble attack 0.607 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Nancy games / 26 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 46% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 23%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Grenoble 4.35. Nancy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nancy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 60% | Grenoble 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 46% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Nancy 1.17 / Grenoble 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.871 / def 1.288 | Grenoble attack 0.607 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Nancy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Grenoble xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Grenoble kick off?
Nancy vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Nancy 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Nancy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Grenoble part of?
Nancy vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 46% chance of winning, Grenoble a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nancy and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Nancy and Grenoble in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.87) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.17
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Nancy xG
Total xG
1.90
0.73
Grenoble xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Nancy and 0.73 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Nancy have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 4W 8D 14L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 7W 4D 15L from 26 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nancy on 0.77 PPG, Grenoble on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nancy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.77 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Grenoble away?
Nancy's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.08 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Nancy or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Grenoble in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2021, when Grenoble won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nancy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Grenoble have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Nancy 0-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 50%, Grenoble 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Nancy and 25% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 42% of games; Grenoble in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nancy's recent matches and 33% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nancy's recent games and 25% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Grenoble tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat Nancy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Nancy 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.17 xG and Grenoble 0.73 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nancy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.87 / defence 1.29 against Grenoble attack 0.61 / defence 1.33, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 46% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 23%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 46%, Grenoble 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 0.77 PPG, Grenoble 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.