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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 28 November 2021

Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29 Tue 30 Wed 1

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 28 November 2021. Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife sits top on 80% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 80% down to 61%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 75%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Brazil 80%

✓ Under 2.5 80% ✓ BTTS No 72%

Serie A · Italy 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 69% ✓ AS Roma Clean Sheet 54%

K League 1 · South-Korea 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Premier League · Ukraine 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 64%

Allsvenskan · Sweden 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62%

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 61%

La Liga · Spain 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%

Premier League · Russia 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Süper Lig · Turkey 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 60%

#10

Primeira Liga · Portugal 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#11

Süper Lig · Turkey 66%

Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#12

Premier League · Ukraine 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#13

Primeira Liga · Portugal 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#14

Thai League 1 · Thailand 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#15

Super League 1 · Greece 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 55%

#16

Thai League 1 · Thailand 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#17

K League 1 · South-Korea 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#18

Ligue 1 · France 61%

#19

Serie A · Brazil 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 67% Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 60%

#20

K League 1 · South-Korea 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 28 November 2021?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife at 80% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.