Real Madrid 2-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Madrid at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Madrid vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Real Madrid welcome Sevilla to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Madrid have posted 3W 2D 0L at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sevilla — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Sevilla have posted 3W 3D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Real Madrid) versus 2.10 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sevilla trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 77% versus Sevilla 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 77% | Sevilla 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 1.14 xG and Sevilla 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.327 / defence 1.019 | Sevilla attack 0.749 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.166. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Real Madrid games / 13 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 40% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 27%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Sevilla 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 60% | Sevilla 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 40% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Real Madrid 1.14 / Sevilla 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.327 / def 1.019 | Sevilla attack 0.749 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sevilla xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Sevilla kick off?
Real Madrid vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Real Madrid vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Sevilla part of?
Real Madrid vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 40% chance of winning, Sevilla a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Real Madrid and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Madrid and Sevilla in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sevilla (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Real Madrid's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.04
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
2.03
0.89
Sevilla xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.89 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Madrid come into this having played 13 games, going 9W 3D 1L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Madrid on 2.31 PPG, Sevilla on 2.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Real Madrid's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Madrid are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.77 scored and 0.69 conceded. Real Madrid's scoring rate against Sevilla's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sevilla in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 games (2.31 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Sevilla away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.20 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sevilla in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Real Madrid have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Real Madrid
1
Draws
0
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 9, Sevilla have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Sevilla?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 60%, Sevilla 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Real Madrid and 0% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sevilla in 60%; Real Madrid have failed to score in 40% of games; Sevilla in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 20% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Real Madrid's recent games and 0% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Sevilla tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Sevilla 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Sevilla 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.14 xG and Sevilla 0.89 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.33 / defence 1.02 against Sevilla attack 0.75 / defence 0.83, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 40% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 27%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 77%, Sevilla 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Madrid 2.31 PPG, Sevilla 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.