Sporting CP 2-0 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs Tondela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Alvalade plays host to Sporting CP versus Tondela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sporting CP have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's home record at Estádio José Alvalade: 5W 1D 0L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (2.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tondela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tondela have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Sporting CP's favour (2.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Tondela — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 36% versus Tondela 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 27% | Tondela 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.32 xG and Tondela 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 0.973 / defence 0.768 | Tondela attack 0.735 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.312. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Sporting CP's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Sporting CP games / 11 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 47% | Draw 36% | Tondela 17%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.13 | Draw 2.78 | Tondela 5.88. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 17% | Tondela 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 47% | Draw 36% | Tondela 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Sporting CP 1.32 / Tondela 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 0.973 / def 0.768 | Tondela attack 0.735 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Tondela xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Tondela kick off?
Sporting CP vs Tondela kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Sporting CP 2 - 0 Tondela.
Where is Sporting CP vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Tondela part of?
Sporting CP vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 47% chance of winning, Tondela a 17% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sporting CP and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Tondela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sporting CP and Tondela in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Tondela (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sporting CP's attack rating (0.97) and Tondela's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.73x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
47%
2.13
36%
2.78
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.07
0.74
Tondela xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
21.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.74 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP come into this having played 11 games, going 9W 2D 0L for 2.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (4W 0D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Tondela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sporting CP's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tondela's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.36 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.55 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 64%.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Tondela in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 9W 2D 0L in their last 11 games (2.64 PPG), while Tondela have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Tondela away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.60 PPG; Tondela away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Tondela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Tondela in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tondela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
1
Draws
0
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 3, Tondela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Sporting CP 2-2 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Tondela?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 20%, Tondela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sporting CP and 60% for Tondela.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 60% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sporting CP's recent games and 60% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Tondela tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tondela in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tondela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Tondela 2-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.32 xG and Tondela 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against Tondela attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 47% | Draw 36% | Tondela 17%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 27%, Tondela 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tondela's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.