Atletico-MG 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto plays host to Atletico-MG versus Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico-MG have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico-MG have posted 10W 0D 0L at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Atletico-MG are significantly better at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Atletico-MG, 1.80 for Fluminense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 47% versus Fluminense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico-MG 47% | Fluminense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.74 xG and Fluminense 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 1.478 / defence 0.831 | Fluminense attack 0.665 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 0.914. Atletico-MG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.478 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Atletico-MG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Atletico-MG games / 35 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 67% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 10%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Fluminense 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Atletico-MG (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fluminense's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico-MG at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico-MG 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 67% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 33% | xG Atletico-MG 1.74 / Fluminense 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 1.478 / def 0.831 | Fluminense attack 0.665 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.981 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Fluminense xG
33%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Fluminense kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Fluminense part of?
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 67% chance of winning, Fluminense a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Atletico-MG and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico-MG and Fluminense in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico-MG's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.67x) against Atletico-MG's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
67%
1.48
23%
4.41
10%
10.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.25
0.51
Fluminense xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
10.12
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
2%
57.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.51 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico-MG's recent record stands at 23W 6D 5L from 34 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 12L across 34 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico-MG by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fluminense heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atletico-MG have managed 15W 1D 0L from 16 games — 2.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — Atletico-MG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 23W 6D 5L in their last 34 games (2.21 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Fluminense away?
Atletico-MG's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 2.88 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Fluminense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Atletico-MG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 44%, Fluminense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Atletico-MG) and 31% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fluminense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 38% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 31% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico-MG edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Fluminense 2-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.74 xG and Fluminense 0.51 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.48 / defence 0.83 against Fluminense attack 0.67 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 67% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 10%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 47%, Fluminense 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.