FC Seoul 0-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Seoul at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Seoul Olympic Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 4D 3L at Seoul Olympic Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul Olympic Stadium this season.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. FC Seoul's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Gangwon FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
FC Seoul goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 44% | Gangwon FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.21 xG and Gangwon FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.922 / defence 1.172 | Gangwon FC attack 0.707 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 1.264. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 FC Seoul games / 33 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 40% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Gangwon FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Seoul Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 40% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Seoul 1.21 / Gangwon FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.922 / def 1.172 | Gangwon FC attack 0.707 / def 1.399 | league avg home 0.936 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gangwon FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Seoul Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul Olympic Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 40% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Seoul and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Gangwon FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Seoul's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Gangwon FC's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.71x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.50
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.25
1.05
Gangwon FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.05 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 11W 10D 15L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 9W 12D 15L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.08 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Seoul are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Gangwon FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.11 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Seoul
3
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 5, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when FC Seoul 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Gangwon FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 44%, Gangwon FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Seoul) and 50% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 39% of games; Gangwon FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 56% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Seoul's recent games and 50% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Seoul's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seoul Olympic Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, as FC Seoul and Gangwon FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.21 xG and Gangwon FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Seoul fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Gangwon FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.40, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 40% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 32%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 44%, Gangwon FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.19 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.