Veres Rivne 3-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Veres Rivne face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Veres Rivne welcome Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Veres Rivne at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Veres Rivne) versus 1.10 (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Veres Rivne's 30% BTTS rate and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 30% (from Veres Rivne's last 10 home games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Veres Rivne, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Veres Rivne 3–2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — a Veres Rivne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 31% of Veres Rivne's games and 38% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.34 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / defence 1.009 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.684 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.244. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 55 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 25.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.11 | Draw 3.42 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.26. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 30% (last 10 home games) | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.34 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / def 1.009 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.684 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne 3 - 3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 47% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.88) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 55 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.42
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.20
0.86
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.86 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 9D 10L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 7W 5D 14L from 26 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.15 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 12 home games (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 1D 7L from their last 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.25 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 25% BTTS, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Veres Rivne) and 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 50% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 67% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi finished level at 3-3 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.34 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 31%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.15 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.