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Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Oleksandria to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.

Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 0 for Oleksandria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36% versus Oleksandria 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | Oleksandria 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Oleksandria 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.968 / defence 0.900 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.224. Oleksandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 53 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Oleksandria 4.55. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.

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