Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host Kudrivka at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 0.60 PPG, Kudrivka 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kudrivka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Kudrivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 41% versus Kudrivka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 48% | Kudrivka 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.19 xG and Kudrivka 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.848 / defence 1.171 | Kudrivka attack 0.670 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.258. Data: 54 Obolon'-Brovar games / 25 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 40% | Draw 31% | Kudrivka 29%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Kudrivka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Obolon'-Brovar at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 40% | Kudrivka 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 40% | Draw 31% | Kudrivka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.19 / Kudrivka 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.848 / def 1.171 | Kudrivka attack 0.670 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kudrivka xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 40% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Kudrivka's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.21
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.18
0.99
Kudrivka xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.99 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 9D 12L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kudrivka's form line: 6W 6D 15L from 27 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 1.00 PPG, Kudrivka on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Kudrivka have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.04 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Kudrivka away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.15 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kudrivka have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 38%, Kudrivka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Obolon'-Brovar and 31% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 38% of games; Kudrivka in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 38% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 31% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.19 xG and Kudrivka 0.99 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Kudrivka attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 40% | Draw 31% | Kudrivka 29%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 48%, Kudrivka 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Kudrivka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Kudrivka 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.