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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

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Full Analysis

Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

SK Poltava (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Poltava at Zirka Stadium this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

Kryvbas KR have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kryvbas KR are 1.30 PPG clear of SK Poltava in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SK Poltava lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

SK Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 52% versus Kryvbas KR 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Poltava 64% | Kryvbas KR 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.92 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.752 / defence 1.843 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.884 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.213. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 SK Poltava games / 55 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 17% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 62%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Kryvbas KR 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SK Poltava 40% | Kryvbas KR 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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