FC Kharkiv 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FC Kharkiv take on Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and Polessya meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tsentralnyi Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Polessya's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 2.20 for Polessya. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Polessya in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Kharkiv lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 32% | Polessya 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 21% | Polessya 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG and Polessya 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.944 / defence 0.601 | Polessya attack 1.261 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.258. Polessya's defence strength of 0.670 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.601 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 FC Kharkiv games / 55 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Polessya 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Polessya 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.82 / Polessya 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.944 / def 0.601 | Polessya attack 1.261 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Polessya xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 28% chance of winning, Polessya a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Record (3 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 2 | Polessya 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Polessya in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Polessya (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.26x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.52
36%
2.79
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.77
0.95
Polessya xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 16.2 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.95 for Polessya, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 14W 10D 4L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 16W 6D 6L from 28 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.93 for Polessya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 10W 0D 3L from 13 away games — 2.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.64 scored and 0.64 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya in 29%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Polessya in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Polessya in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Polessya have gone 16W 6D 6L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.08 PPG; Polessya away: 2.31 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Polessya in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Polessya have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Polessya 3-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 15% (FC Kharkiv) and 23% (Polessya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for FC Kharkiv and 46% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches; Polessya in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 23% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 46% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Polessya tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Polessya in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out FC Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat FC Kharkiv 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG and Polessya 0.95 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.94 / defence 0.60 against Polessya attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 21%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.86 PPG, Polessya 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.