🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Veres Rivne travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 1D 7L at Arena Lviv — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Veres Rivne have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Veres Rivne's 0.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 2 for Veres Rivne and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Veres Rivne winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 36% versus Veres Rivne 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 36% | Veres Rivne 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.18 xG and Veres Rivne 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.834 / defence 1.360 | Veres Rivne attack 0.822 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.246. Data: 56 Ruh Lviv games / 56 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 42%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Ruh Lviv dominate the H2H record, yet Veres Rivne are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Veres Rivne 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights