Karpaty 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ukraina Stadium plays host to Karpaty versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ukraina Stadium, Karpaty have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Karpaty 2W, LNZ Cherkasy 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Karpaty winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 42% versus LNZ Cherkasy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karpaty 49% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 0.93 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.077 / defence 0.875 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.178 / defence 0.660. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.274. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.660 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Karpaty games / 55 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 26% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.22. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Karpaty 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 26% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Karpaty 0.93 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.077 / def 0.875 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.178 / def 0.660 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.31
LNZ Cherkasy xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Karpaty 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 26% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Karpaty 2W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Karpaty (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karpaty's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.18x) against Karpaty's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
26%
3.87
29%
3.42
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.24
1.31
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.31 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karpaty's recent record stands at 22W 16D 17L from 55 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 18L across 55 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Karpaty against 1.51 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karpaty have managed 12W 8D 7L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 11W 7D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karpaty are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.11 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Karpaty's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 1.63 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Karpaty or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won 3-0 on 10 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karpaty have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Karpaty
1
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 5 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Karpaty 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 44%, LNZ Cherkasy 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Karpaty) and 33% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 41%; LNZ Cherkasy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Karpaty's recent matches and 41% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Karpaty's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karpaty's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 0.93 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.31 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karpaty fell 0.9 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.18 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 26% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 49%, LNZ Cherkasy 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.49 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.