Ruh Lviv 1-2 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zorya Luhansk travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ruh Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Zorya Luhansk have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zorya Luhansk are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Zorya Luhansk 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Ruh Lviv 0–1 Zorya Luhansk — a Zorya Luhansk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 34% versus Zorya Luhansk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 34% | Zorya Luhansk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.871 / defence 1.330 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.075 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.265. Zorya Luhansk's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zorya Luhansk's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 55 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 55.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.19 | Draw 4.11 | Zorya Luhansk 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Zorya Luhansk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 home games) | Zorya Luhansk 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.50 / Zorya Luhansk 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.871 / def 1.330 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.075 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Zorya Luhansk xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.87x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 55 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.11
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
3.31
1.81
Zorya Luhansk xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.81 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 13D 27L from 55 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 22L across 55 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.05 PPG, Zorya Luhansk on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 7D 13L from their last 27 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Zorya Luhansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.04 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 4 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zorya Luhansk have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Apr 2023, when Zorya Luhansk won Zorya Luhansk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
4
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Zorya Luhansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 44%, Zorya Luhansk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ruh Lviv) and 56% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 37% of games; Zorya Luhansk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 59% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 56% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 70% of Zorya Luhansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.81 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.05 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.