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Poisson model favours Karpaty (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Karpaty.

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Match Analysis

Ruh Lviv host Karpaty at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karpaty are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 2 for Karpaty and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Karpaty in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus Karpaty 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 33% | Karpaty 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.956 / defence 1.256 | Karpaty attack 0.978 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.133. Karpaty's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Ruh Lviv games / 54 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Karpaty 2.04. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Karpaty 10% BTTS from recent games.

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