Lviv 0-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Dnipro-1 travel to Stadion Mis'kyj to take on Lviv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 1W 3D 5L from 9 Premier League matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's home record at Stadion Mis'kyj: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 1.11 PPG ahead (1.78 vs 0.67), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lviv register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dnipro-1 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lviv in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 56% versus Dnipro-1 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 44% | Dnipro-1 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.723 / defence 1.187 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.906 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.270. Lviv's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Lviv games / 9 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.08. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Lviv 60% | Dnipro-1 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Mis'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Lviv 0.90 / Dnipro-1 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.723 / def 1.187 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.906 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadion Mis'kyj.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Lviv 0 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mis'kyj.
What competition is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Lviv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 25% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lviv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Dnipro-1 in?
Lviv (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.72) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.62
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.26
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lviv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Lviv and 1.37 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 3D 5L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lviv's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.60 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Lviv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Dnipro-1 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dnipro-1 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lviv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 60%, Dnipro-1 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Lviv and 80% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Dnipro-1?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lviv's games and 60% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Lviv's matches and 80% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Lviv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Lviv 0-1 at Stadion Mis'kyj, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 44%, Dnipro-1 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.