FC Mariupol 0-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Mariupol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka plays host to FC Mariupol versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Mariupol have collected 0.44 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's home record at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Premier League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 2D 5L across 9 Premier League outings this term — 0.89 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.44 for FC Mariupol, 0.89 for Ruh Lviv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FC Mariupol half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Mariupol 78% and Ruh Lviv 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 89% | Ruh Lviv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.36 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.993 / defence 1.764 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.542 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.265. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing FC Mariupol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 FC Mariupol games / 9 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Ruh Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Mariupol at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Mariupol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Mariupol 75% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Mariupol 1.36 / Ruh Lviv 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.993 / def 1.764 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.542 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FC Mariupol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ruh Lviv xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv?
FC Mariupol 0 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv part of?
FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 40% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Mariupol the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Mariupol's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.54x) against FC Mariupol's defence (1.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Mariupol Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.78
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.57
1.21
Ruh Lviv xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.21 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Mariupol's recent record stands at 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 5L across 9 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Mariupol have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 75%, Ruh Lviv 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (FC Mariupol) and 0% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 25% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of FC Mariupol's recent games and 0% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Mariupol and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat FC Mariupol 0-2 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.36 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.21 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.99 / defence 1.76 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.54 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 33%, with FC Mariupol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 89%, Ruh Lviv 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.