Dnipro-1 0-4 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk meet at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Dnipro Arena this term (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at Dnipro Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 4W 2D 2L across 8 Premier League outings this term — 1.75 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's away record: 2W 1D 0L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Dnipro-1, 1.75 for Zorya Luhansk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
Zorya Luhansk — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 50% versus Zorya Luhansk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 62% | Zorya Luhansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.40 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 0.974 / defence 0.888 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.268 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.195. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zorya Luhansk have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Dnipro-1 games / 8 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 36%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Zorya Luhansk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 33% | Zorya Luhansk 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dnipro-1 1.40 / Zorya Luhansk 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 0.974 / def 0.888 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.268 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Zorya Luhansk xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk?
Dnipro-1 0 - 4 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 38% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (0.97) and Zorya Luhansk's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.27x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.91
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.74
1.35
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.35 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 1D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zorya Luhansk sit at 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Dnipro-1 against 1.75 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dnipro-1's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zorya Luhansk have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — Zorya Luhansk travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded. Zorya Luhansk's attacking output running into Dnipro-1's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zorya Luhansk in 62%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Dnipro-1's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 3.00 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 0-4 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
2
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Dnipro-1 2-2 Zorya Luhansk.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Dnipro-1, 100% for Zorya Luhansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Dnipro-1) and 67% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Dnipro-1's games and 100% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 67% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zorya Luhansk run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Dnipro-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Dnipro-1 0-4 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.40 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.35 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.27 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 36%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zorya Luhansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 62%, Zorya Luhansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.00 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.