Veres Rivne 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Veres Rivne take on Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Oleksandria meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games (1.22 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria have collected 1.89 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Oleksandria arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.89 vs 1.22) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 33% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 44% | Oleksandria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 0.81 xG and Oleksandria 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.803 / defence 0.869 | Oleksandria attack 0.775 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.252. Data: 9 Veres Rivne games / 9 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 34%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Oleksandria 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Veres Rivne's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 25% | Oleksandria 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Veres Rivne 0.81 / Oleksandria 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.803 / def 0.869 | Oleksandria attack 0.775 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Oleksandria xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria?
Veres Rivne 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria part of?
Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 32% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Veres Rivne and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and Oleksandria in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.80x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.78x) against Veres Rivne's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
1.66
0.84
Oleksandria xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 16.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.84 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Veres Rivne's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.11 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Oleksandria away?
Veres Rivne's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 2.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won 0-3 on 20 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 5D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
5
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Oleksandria?
From 9 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 1, Oleksandria have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Oleksandria 0-3 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Oleksandria tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 25%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Veres Rivne and 25% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 25% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Oleksandria finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 0.81 xG and Oleksandria 0.84 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against Oleksandria attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 44%, Oleksandria 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.