Lviv 1-4 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lviv have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 0W 3D 3L at Arena L'viv — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Dynamo Kyiv's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Dynamo Kyiv arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lviv 50% | Dynamo Kyiv 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 40% | Dynamo Kyiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.64 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.657 / defence 1.185 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.052 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.176. Lviv's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Lviv games / 10 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 16% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 57%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 50% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 16% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 36% | xG Lviv 0.64 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.657 / def 1.185 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.052 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Dynamo Kyiv xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Lviv 1 - 4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 16% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Lviv (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.66) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.05x) against Lviv's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-2 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
16%
6.19
27%
3.76
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.10
1.47
Dynamo Kyiv xG
6.19
16%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
4%
26.82
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 17.9 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Lviv and 1.47 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 3D 6L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv's form line: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games, 2.60 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo Kyiv are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.50 scored and 0.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv in 20%.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.50 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dynamo Kyiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 1-4 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lviv have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dynamo Kyiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Lviv and 25% for Dynamo Kyiv.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 50%; Lviv have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lviv's recent matches and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lviv's recent games and 25% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Lviv 1-4 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.64 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.47 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.66 / defence 1.19 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 16% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 57%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 40%, Dynamo Kyiv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.