Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 5W 3D 1L across 9 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 0.78 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this season: 4W 2D 0L from 6 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Inhulets have collected 0.89 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Vorskla Poltava. A 1.11 PPG lead over Inhulets (2.00 vs 0.89) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 44% versus Inhulets 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 33% | Inhulets 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.78 xG and Inhulets 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.397 / defence 1.045 | Inhulets attack 0.686 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.265. Vorskla Poltava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Vorskla Poltava games / 9 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 58% | Draw 23% | Inhulets 19%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Inhulets 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Inhulets 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 58% | Draw 23% | Inhulets 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.78 / Inhulets 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.397 / def 1.045 | Inhulets attack 0.686 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Inhulets xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava 3 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 58% chance of winning, Inhulets a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.40) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.69x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.32
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.69
0.91
Inhulets xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
31.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.91 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 1L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Vorskla Poltava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Inhulets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.60 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Inhulets in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 40%, Inhulets 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Vorskla Poltava) and 40% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Inhulets in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 60% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 40% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vorskla Poltava run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Inhulets 3-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.78 xG and Inhulets 0.91 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.40 / defence 1.04 against Inhulets attack 0.69 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 58% | Draw 23% | Inhulets 19%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 33%, Inhulets 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.