Minai 1-2 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Minai vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Minai and Lviv meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Minai's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Minai have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Minai have posted 1W 2D 0L at Stadion Avanhard — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Minai are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Lviv have collected 0.38 PPG across 8 Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.86 for Minai, 0.38 for Lviv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 43% versus Lviv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 14% | Lviv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.44 xG and Lviv 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.976 / defence 1.081 | Lviv attack 0.637 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.170. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Minai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Minai games / 8 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21%. Fair-value odds: Minai 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 4.76. Minai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Minai are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Minai 67% | Lviv 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Minai 1.44 / Lviv 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.976 / def 1.081 | Lviv attack 0.637 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Minai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Minai xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lviv xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Lviv kick off?
Minai vs Lviv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Minai vs Lviv?
Minai 1 - 2 Lviv.
Where is Minai vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Minai vs Lviv part of?
Minai vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 52% chance of winning, Lviv a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Minai and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Minai and Lviv in?
Minai (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Lviv (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.98) and Lviv's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.64x) against Minai's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.71
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Minai xG
Total xG
2.24
0.81
Lviv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Minai and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Minai and 0.81 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Minai's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Minai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Minai by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Minai have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Minai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lviv's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Minai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Minai are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Lviv in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Lviv away?
Minai's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 1.67 PPG; Lviv away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lviv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Minai have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Minai
0
Draws
3
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Minai have won 0, Lviv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2023, when Lviv 1-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Lviv?
Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 67%, Lviv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Minai and 33% for Lviv.
On the defensive side: Minai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lviv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Minai's recent matches and 33% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Minai's recent games and 33% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Lviv tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lviv in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lviv defy the odds to beat Minai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat Minai 1-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.44 xG and Lviv 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lviv outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Lviv attack 0.64 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 14%, Lviv 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Lviv's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Minai arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Minai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.