Kudrivka 2-2 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zorya Luhansk make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Kudrivka's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kudrivka have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 home games (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Kudrivka are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zorya Luhansk have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zorya Luhansk's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for Zorya Luhansk and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2025, ended Kudrivka 1–2 Zorya Luhansk — a Zorya Luhansk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kudrivka — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Zorya Luhansk — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 67% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 61% | Zorya Luhansk 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.17 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.966 / defence 1.177 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.957 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.236. Data: built from Kudrivka's last 16 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 46.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 31% | Draw 28% | Zorya Luhansk 41%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.23 | Draw 3.60 | Zorya Luhansk 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kudrivka 89% (last 9 home games) | Zorya Luhansk 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 31% | Draw 28% | Zorya Luhansk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Kudrivka 1.17 / Zorya Luhansk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.966 / def 1.177 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.957 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Zorya Luhansk xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk FAQs
What time does Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk?
Kudrivka 2 - 2 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 31% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kudrivka's attack rating (0.97) and Zorya Luhansk's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (0.96x) against Kudrivka's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Kudrivka's last 16 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
31%
3.23
28%
3.60
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.57
1.39
Zorya Luhansk xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
13.03
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.39 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 5W 3D 10L from 18 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 6L across 18 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 4W 2D 2L from their last 8 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across their last 8 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kudrivka are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Kudrivka (Home) vs Zorya Luhansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kudrivka
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk Form FAQs
What form are Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.75 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
1
Draws
1
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kudrivka have won 0, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2026: Kudrivka 2-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Kudrivka, 50% for Zorya Luhansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Kudrivka and 50% for Zorya Luhansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kudrivka vs Zorya Luhansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Kudrivka's games and 50% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Kudrivka's matches and 50% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 75% of Zorya Luhansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk finished level at 2-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.17 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 31% | Draw 28% | Zorya Luhansk 41%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 61%, Zorya Luhansk 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.