Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv meet at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Dynamo Kyiv are significantly better at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Dynamo Kyiv against 1.60 for Ruh Lviv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Dynamo Kyiv, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Ruh Lviv — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 5–1 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The historical record gives Dynamo Kyiv a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dynamo Kyiv — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 61% versus Ruh Lviv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 59% | Ruh Lviv 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.208 / defence 0.893 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.287. Data: 46 Dynamo Kyiv games / 46 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Ruh Lviv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 50% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 / Ruh Lviv 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.208 / def 0.893 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ruh Lviv xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 44% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv?
Record (8 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 6W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.81x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.37
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Ruh Lviv xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.93 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 27W 15D 4L from 46 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 19L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 14W 6D 2L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.98 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 27W 15D 4L in their last 46 games (2.09 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.18 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 54%, Ruh Lviv 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 18% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 36%; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 32% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 18% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 59%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.