Oleksandria 1-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 12 December 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Kudrivka (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kudrivka have gone 1W 0D 7L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Oleksandria against 0.70 for Kudrivka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Kudrivka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 47% versus Kudrivka 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 47% | Kudrivka 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.58 xG and Kudrivka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.869 / defence 1.154 | Kudrivka attack 0.711 / defence 1.639. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.267. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.639 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Oleksandria games / 15 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 50% | Draw 25% | Kudrivka 25%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Kudrivka 4.00. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Oleksandria 30% | Kudrivka 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 50% | Draw 25% | Kudrivka 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Oleksandria 1.58 / Kudrivka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.869 / def 1.154 | Kudrivka attack 0.711 / def 1.639 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kudrivka xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kudrivka kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kudrivka kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 12 December 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kudrivka?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kudrivka part of?
Oleksandria vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 50% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Oleksandria and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kudrivka?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kudrivka in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.87) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.71x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.97
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.62
1.04
Kudrivka xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.04 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kudrivka, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 10L across 17 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.00 for Kudrivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 3W 0D 5L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kudrivka's away record stands at 1W 0D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kudrivka away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.12 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
1
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Kudrivka have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kudrivka?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 38%, Kudrivka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria have failed to score in 50% of games; Kudrivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 38% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 16, as Oleksandria and Kudrivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.58 xG and Kudrivka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Kudrivka attack 0.71 / defence 1.64, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 50% | Draw 25% | Kudrivka 25%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, Kudrivka 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Kudrivka's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.82 PPG, Kudrivka 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.