🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Kolos Stadium plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Zorya Luhansk in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kryvbas KR have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kolos Stadium, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Zorya Luhansk (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Zorya Luhansk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Kryvbas KR have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Zorya Luhansk managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kryvbas KR and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Zorya Luhansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Zorya Luhansk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 43% | Zorya Luhansk 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.184 / defence 0.965 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.011 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.225. Data: 47 Kryvbas KR games / 47 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Zorya Luhansk 3.45. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | Zorya Luhansk 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights