🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Oleksandria welcome Obolon'-Brovar to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.

Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oleksandria at 0.70 PPG versus Obolon'-Brovar's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 1 for Obolon'-Brovar and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Oleksandria trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 46% versus Obolon'-Brovar 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Obolon'-Brovar 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.862 / defence 1.100 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.855 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.236. Data: 46 Oleksandria games / 46 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 37%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights