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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0W 2D 6L at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.

LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 47% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.902 / defence 1.338 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.053 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.270. Data: 16 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 46 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.72. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 75% | LNZ Cherkasy 30%.

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