Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0W 2D 6L at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 47% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.902 / defence 1.338 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.053 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.270. Data: 16 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 46 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.72. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 75% | LNZ Cherkasy 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.902 / def 1.338 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.053 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.79
LNZ Cherkasy xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 19% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
19%
5.34
23%
4.28
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.70
1.79
LNZ Cherkasy xG
5.34
19%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.99
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
32.01
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.79 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 3D 10L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 0W 2D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.24 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 18%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.25 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 75%, LNZ Cherkasy 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 25% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play LNZ Cherkasy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 38% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59%, LNZ Cherkasy 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.