Kanchanaburi 1-4 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 47%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kanchanaburi vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to face Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Kanchanaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kanchanaburi lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–8 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 55% versus Port FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 40% | Port FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.52 xG and Port FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.878 / defence 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.061 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.086. Data: 20 Kanchanaburi games / 49 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 47% | Draw 27% | Port FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 3.85. Kanchanaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kanchanaburi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kanchanaburi 50% | Port FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 47% | Draw 27% | Port FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.52 / Port FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.878 / def 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.061 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Port FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Port FC?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 4 Port FC.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Port FC part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 47% chance of winning, Port FC a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Kanchanaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Port FC in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kanchanaburi's attack at 0.88x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.06x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 20/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.72
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Port FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
17.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.06 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 2W 10D 8L from 20 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 6L across 20 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kanchanaburi have managed 2W 5D 1L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Kanchanaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 0D 5L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 10D 8L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while Port FC have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Port FC away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.38 PPG; Port FC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Kanchanaburi or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kanchanaburi have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Port FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
0
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kanchanaburi 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 50%, Port FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kanchanaburi) and 25% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Port FC in 38%; Port FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 25% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 25% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kanchanaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Kanchanaburi 1-4 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.52 xG and Port FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 20/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 47% | Draw 27% | Port FC 26%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 40%, Port FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.