🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 47%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kanchanaburi vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Port FC make the trip to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to face Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.

Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Kanchanaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kanchanaburi lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–8 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 55% versus Port FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 40% | Port FC 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.52 xG and Port FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.878 / defence 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.061 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.086. Data: 20 Kanchanaburi games / 49 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 47% | Draw 27% | Port FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 3.85. Kanchanaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kanchanaburi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kanchanaburi 50% | Port FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights