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Poisson model favours Port FC (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

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Full Analysis

PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Port FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.70 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Port FC, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Port FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.340 / defence 0.771 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.145. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Port FC's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Port FC games / 48 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 78% | Draw 16% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%.

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