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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Uthai Thani (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Uthai Thani away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chonburi FC, 1.70 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Uthai Thani in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 58% and Uthai Thani 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 42% | Uthai Thani 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.67 xG and Uthai Thani 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.132 | Uthai Thani attack 0.965 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.088. Data: 19 Chonburi FC games / 49 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 27%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 3.70. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 67% | Uthai Thani 70% BTTS from recent games.

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