Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 24 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Ratchaburi away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Sukhothai FC 0–1 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 57% versus Ratchaburi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 48% | Ratchaburi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.868 / defence 0.926 | Ratchaburi attack 1.573 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.090. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.573, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 57 games and Ratchaburi's last 56.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.88 | Draw 3.29 | Ratchaburi 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.19 / Ratchaburi 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.868 / def 0.926 | Ratchaburi attack 1.573 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 26% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 57 games and Ratchaburi's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.29
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.59 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 19D 23L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Ratchaburi's form line: 30W 12D 14L from 56 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 14W 4D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.98 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 19D 23L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 30W 12D 14L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.74 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2026, when Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Ratchaburi 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 67%, Ratchaburi at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sukhothai FC and 67% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 70% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Ratchaburi attack 1.57 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 48%, Ratchaburi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.