Rayong FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rayong FC face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayong FC and Chiangrai United meet at Rayong Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rayong FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rayong FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rayong FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) — Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chiangrai United in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rayong FC, 1 for Chiangrai United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Rayong FC 1–0 Chiangrai United — a Rayong FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 71% and Chiangrai United 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 60% | Chiangrai United 42%). Note also that Chiangrai United surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Rayong FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 2.55 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.253 / defence 1.154 | Chiangrai United attack 1.170 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.141. Rayong FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 2.55 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rayong FC's projected output up. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 48 games and Chiangrai United's last 49.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 59% | Draw 20% | Chiangrai United 21%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.70 | Draw 5.03 | Chiangrai United 4.69. The model has a clear lean to Rayong FC (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.55 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 59% | Draw 20% | Chiangrai United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Rayong FC 2.55 / Chiangrai United 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.253 / def 1.154 | Chiangrai United attack 1.170 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 59% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Rayong FC and Chiangrai United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rayong FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.17x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 48 games and Chiangrai United's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.03
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
4.09
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
8%
12.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
2%
60.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.54 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 15W 14D 19L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 21L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Rayong FC against 1.19 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 10W 7D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 3W 8D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayong FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
Rayong FC (Home) vs Chiangrai United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayong FC
1
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Rayong FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Rayong FC, 67% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rayong FC) and 50% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Chiangrai United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rayong FC's games and 67% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rayong FC's matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Rayong FC and Chiangrai United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 83% of Chiangrai United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 2.55 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rayong FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.15 against Chiangrai United attack 1.17 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 59% | Draw 20% | Chiangrai United 21%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.