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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap encounter.

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Match Analysis

Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 4 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Prachuap trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 55% versus Prachuap 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 55% | Prachuap 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and Prachuap 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / defence 0.863 | Prachuap attack 0.822 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.086. Data: 49 Ratchaburi games / 49 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 30% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.

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