🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

BG Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

BG Pathum United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, BG Pathum United have posted 7W 2D 1L at BG Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BG Stadium.

Chiangrai United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in BG Pathum United's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: BG Pathum United 4W, Chiangrai United 4W, 1D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 54% versus Chiangrai United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 48% | Chiangrai United 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 2.43 xG and Chiangrai United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.123 / defence 0.775 | Chiangrai United attack 1.157 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.065. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. BG Pathum United's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 BG Pathum United games / 48 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 70% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 13%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Chiangrai United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 40% | Chiangrai United 100% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights