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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet in-form Ayutthaya FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sukhothai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Ayutthaya FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sukhothai FC 0W, Ayutthaya FC 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Ayutthaya FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 32% | Ayutthaya FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.778 / defence 0.866 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.003 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.127. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Sukhothai FC games / 19 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Ayutthaya FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ayutthaya FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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