Rayong FC 3-0 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Buriram United travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rayong FC stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rayong FC at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rayong FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Buriram United have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Rayong FC's games and 60% of Buriram United's (from Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rayong FC have won 0, Buriram United 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Rayong FC 1–2 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Buriram United trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 74% and Buriram United 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 60% | Buriram United 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rayong FC surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Buriram United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.081 | Buriram United attack 1.559 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.071. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.559, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 57 games and Buriram United's last 57.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 27% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.64 | Draw 3.74 | Buriram United 2.19. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 27% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Rayong FC 1.38 / Buriram United 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.099 / def 1.081 | Buriram United attack 1.559 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Buriram United xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Buriram United FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Rayong FC 3 - 0 Buriram United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Buriram United part of?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 27% chance of winning, Buriram United a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rayong FC and Buriram United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.10) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 57 games and Buriram United's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
27%
3.64
27%
3.74
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.80
Buriram United xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
5%
22.12
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Buriram United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.80 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 17D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.44 PPG from 57 outings (44W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rayong FC's home form reads 11W 10D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (20W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.91 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
Rayong FC (Home) vs Buriram United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Rayong FC vs Buriram United Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 44W 7D 6L in their last 57 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Buriram United in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2026, when Rayong FC won Rayong FC 3-0 Buriram United.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
3
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Buriram United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 1, Buriram United have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Buriram United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Buriram United 3-2 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 79%, Buriram United at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Rayong FC and 75% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Buriram United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Buriram United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Rayong FC's games and 64% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Buriram United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Rayong FC's matches and 75% of Buriram United's.
Do Rayong FC and Buriram United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 79% of Buriram United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rayong FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Buriram United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Buriram United 3-0 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Buriram United landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Buriram United attack 1.56 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 27% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Rayong FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.