Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lamphun Warrior's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.30 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, Chiangrai United 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Lamphun Warrior 1–1 Chiangrai United — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 55%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 59% versus Chiangrai United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Chiangrai United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.66 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.968 / defence 1.062 | Chiangrai United attack 1.222 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.041. Chiangrai United have an above-average attack rating of 1.222, which lifts their away xG to 1.35. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 58 games and Chiangrai United's last 58.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 29%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.33 | Draw 3.58 | Chiangrai United 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 70% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 29 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.66 / Chiangrai United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.968 / def 1.062 | Chiangrai United attack 1.222 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Chiangrai United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 29) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 43% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 58 games and Chiangrai United's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.58
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.01
1.35
Chiangrai United xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.35 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 25D 20L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (19W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.10 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 9W 13D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Chiangrai United
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Chiangrai United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Chiangrai United
Current Season
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 13W 25D 20L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Chiangrai United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.38 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 62%, Chiangrai United at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamphun Warrior) and 52% (Chiangrai United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 69% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 52% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 86% of Chiangrai United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamphun Warrior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.66 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Chiangrai United attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 29%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 47%, Chiangrai United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.10 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.