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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chiangrai United at 1.30 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 51% versus Uthai Thani 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 41% | Uthai Thani 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Uthai Thani 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.845 / defence 0.924 | Uthai Thani attack 0.766 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Data: 59 Chiangrai United games / 59 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Uthai Thani 5.88. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.

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