🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 55%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Kanchanaburi and Prachuap meet at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Current Form

Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 2W 4D 1L at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Prachuap (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kanchanaburi 0W, Prachuap 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kanchanaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 56% versus Prachuap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 44% | Prachuap 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.75 xG and Prachuap 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 1.009 / defence 1.008 | Prachuap attack 0.905 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.077. Data: 18 Kanchanaburi games / 48 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kanchanaburi (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kanchanaburi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 57% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights