Kanchanaburi 0-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 55%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kanchanaburi and Prachuap meet at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 2W 4D 1L at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kanchanaburi 0W, Prachuap 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kanchanaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 56% versus Prachuap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 44% | Prachuap 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.75 xG and Prachuap 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 1.009 / defence 1.008 | Prachuap attack 0.905 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.077. Data: 18 Kanchanaburi games / 48 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kanchanaburi (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kanchanaburi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 57% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.75 / Prachuap 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 1.009 / def 1.008 | Prachuap attack 0.905 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap?
Kanchanaburi 0 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 55% chance of winning, Prachuap a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Kanchanaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Prachuap in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kanchanaburi's attack rating (1.01) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.91x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.16
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
Prachuap xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
27.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 0.98 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kanchanaburi come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 8D 8L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kanchanaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kanchanaburi's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Kanchanaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kanchanaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.43 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Prachuap?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Prachuap have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Kanchanaburi 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 57%, Prachuap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kanchanaburi) and 43% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Prachuap in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Kanchanaburi's games and 57% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 43% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kanchanaburi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi and Prachuap finished level at 0-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.75 xG and Prachuap 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 44%, Prachuap 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.