🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Port FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Chonburi FC, 4 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Chonburi FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Port FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Port FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 39% | Port FC 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.796 / defence 1.059 | Port FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.063. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Chonburi FC games / 48 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 29% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 62% | Port FC 30%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights