Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 44%, yet in-form Kanchanaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
80th Birthday Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 25 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 0W 0D 10L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at 80th Birthday Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at 80th Birthday Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kanchanaburi are 0.80 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (0.80 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W, Kanchanaburi 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35% versus Kanchanaburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35% | Kanchanaburi 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.26 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.654 / defence 1.052 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.786 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.088. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 17 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44% | Draw 30% | Kanchanaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Kanchanaburi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kanchanaburi (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Kanchanaburi 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44% | Draw 30% | Kanchanaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.26 / Kanchanaburi 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.654 / def 1.052 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.786 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kanchanaburi xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3 - 0 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 44% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Kanchanaburi 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.65x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.79x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 46/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.35
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.90
Kanchanaburi xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.90 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 1W 4D 12L from 17 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 7L across 17 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kanchanaburi by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.12 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 4D 12L in their last 17 games (0.41 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 8D 7L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Kanchanaburi's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 0.33 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kanchanaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 17%, Kanchanaburi 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 33% for Kanchanaburi.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 83% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Kanchanaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 83% of Kanchanaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 33% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nakhon Ratchasima FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kanchanaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Kanchanaburi 3-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.26 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kanchanaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.05 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44% | Draw 30% | Kanchanaburi 26%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35%, Kanchanaburi 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (17 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (17 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kanchanaburi arrived the stronger side — 0.82 PPG against 0.41. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.